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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 3

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 33-T.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.20 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP