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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Baltimore Ravens 15

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model