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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.46 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model