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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 30-R.Eckley punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model