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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BAL 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP