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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 47

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model