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Sunday 2026-10-11 · 16:25
State Farm Stadium, Glendale US
🏟 Dome
Spread -8.5
O/U 48.5
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- QB edge to DET: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.005 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.123 EPA/dropback
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DET offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- DET defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
DET
28
–
ARI
21
Projected margin: DET by 7
Projected total: 49
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.