4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

3-2 HC Dan Campbell
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

1-4 HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 16:25 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

DET
63.4%
ARI
36.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.022 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.159 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DET 27 20–34
–
ARI 22 15–29
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

DET

Rock Ya-Sin CB Out Hamstring
Ben Bartch G Out Foot
Cade Mays C Out Wrist
Brian Branch S Out Achilles
Tyleik Williams DT Questionable Foot

ARI

Andrew Wingard S Out Knee
Isaiah Adams G Out Ankle
Walter Nolen DT Questionable Calf
Karson Sharar LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 45
–
ARI 21

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:10 TD ARI (5:10) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 47-T.Quitoriano for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 12:25 TD DET (12:25) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – ARI 7
  • Q2 09:38 TD DET (9:38) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – ARI 7
  • Q2 04:55 TD DET (4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – ARI 7
  • Q2 00:57 FG DET (:57) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 24 – ARI 7
  • Q3 09:50 TD DET (9:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. DET 30 – ARI 7
  • Q3 04:27 TD ARI (4:27) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 47-T.Quitoriano for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 31 – ARI 13
  • Q3 01:07 TD DET (1:07) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 37 – ARI 14
  • Q4 05:10 TD DET (5:10) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 44 – ARI 14
  • Q4 02:17 TD ARI (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 45 – ARI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (5:56) (Shotgun) 14-Mi.Wilson pass short right to 7-J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (46-J.Campbell; 2-E.Rakestraw).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 34 for 14 yards (55-D.Barnes). PENALTY on ARI-35-K.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to ARI 43 for 22 yards (0-C.Simon; 12-B.Gillikin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 58%

    (:28) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 46 for 11 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). DET-85-T.Kennedy was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 45%

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 48 for 31 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (80-S.Fehoko), recovered by DET-17-T.Martin at ARI 47.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 68%

    (9:38) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:15) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to DET 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 38 for 5 yards (0-C.Simon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%

    (:57) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 17 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 74%

    (12:24) 38-C.Ryland 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (1:07) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (13:03) 7-J.Brissett sacked at DET 20 for -1 yards (sack split by 97-A.Hutchinson and 44-M.Rodriguez).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:34) 3-J.Fox punts 65 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →