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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -8.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DET
56.4%
ARI
43.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.005 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.123 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 28
ARI 21
Projected margin: DET by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.