Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 76

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.82 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model