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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Detroit Lions 45

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model