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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:56) (Shotgun) 14-Mi.Wilson pass short right to 7-J.Brissett to DET 2 for 7 yards (46-J.Campbell; 2-E.Rakestraw).

The Three Options

GO +3.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.58 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model