Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 67

Detroit Lions 45 – Arizona Cardinals 21

(:34) 3-J.Fox punts 65 yards to ARI 2, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.57 EP
50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -1.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model