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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to ARI 43 for 22 yards (0-C.Simon; 12-B.Gillikin).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model