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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 42

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to ARI 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model