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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 25
Indianapolis Colts 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14
What Actually Happened
(11:44) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 23 for 2 yards (23-D.Everette).
The Three Options
GO
+2.22 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.05 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.52 EP
KICK
+0.74 EP
- 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT
-0.62 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
