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Indianapolis Colts

2-3 HC Shane Steichen
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Pittsburgh Steelers

3-2 HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
39.0%
PIT
61.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Aaron Rodgers (PIT): -0.058 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than IND

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 22 15–29
–
PIT 24 17–31
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

IND

Arden Key DE Out Hamstring
Ashton Dulin WR Out Hamstring
Will Mallory TE Out Thumb
Jaylon Carlies LB Out Ribs
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Darius Slayton WR Questionable Knee

PIT

DeShon Elliott S Out Knee
Jamel Dean CB Out Ankle
Michael Pittman WR Out Foot
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Wrist
Rico Dowdle RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 22
–
PIT 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:02 FG IND (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 08:57 TD PIT (8:57) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart]. IND 3 – PIT 6
  • Q1 07:00 FG IND (7:00) 3-S.Shrader 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 6 – PIT 7
  • Q2 13:20 TD PIT (13:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – PIT 13
  • Q2 07:48 TD IND (7:48) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – PIT 14
  • Q2 00:25 FG PIT (:25) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. IND 13 – PIT 17
  • Q3 10:25 FG IND (10:25) 3-S.Shrader 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – PIT 17
  • Q3 07:16 TD PIT (7:16) 30-J.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – PIT 23
  • Q3 02:17 FG IND (2:17) 3-S.Shrader 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 19 – PIT 24
  • Q4 11:46 FG IND (11:46) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 22 – PIT 24
  • Q4 06:40 TD PIT (6:40) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 22 – PIT 30
  • Q4 03:47 FG PIT (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. IND 22 – PIT 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 62%

    (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 64%

    (7:00) 3-S.Shrader 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 88%

    (11:44) 17-D.Jones up the middle to PIT 23 for 2 yards (23-D.Everette).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:48) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:10) 19-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to IND 4, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on IND-34-K.Gushiken, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at IND 4.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 12 for no gain (80-D.Burks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 81%

    (:25) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (10:25) 3-S.Shrader 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 31%

    (7:54) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner; 90-G.Stewart).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (2:17) 3-S.Shrader 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:23) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (11:46) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (7:56) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to IND 46 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 2-J.Downs (41-P.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 69%

    (3:47) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 43%

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Allen (22-A.Samuel).

    See the full breakdown →