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IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ❓ Unknown Spread 2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

IND
36.4%
PIT
63.6%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to IND: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.038 vs Daniel Jones (IND) +0.164 EPA/dropback
  • IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than IND

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.