4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 12 for no gain (80-D.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.24 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model