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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.31 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model