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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 3-S.Shrader 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP