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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 22

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 3-S.Shrader 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model