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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model