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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 22

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model