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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 3-S.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP