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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 3-S.Shrader 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP