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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.33 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model