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Minnesota Vikings

5-0 HC Kevin O'Connell
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New Orleans Saints

1-4 HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIN
41.0%
NO
59.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20 13–27
–
NO 24 17–31
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIN

Christian Darrisaw T Out Concussion
Charles Demmings CB Out Hamstring
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Knee
Justin Jefferson WR Questionable Ankle
Jordan Addison WR Questionable Hamstring
Michael Jurgens C Questionable Elbow
Ben Yurosek TE Questionable Ankle

NO

Kaden Elliss LB Out Calf
Anfernee Jennings LB Out Knee
Jeremiah Wright G Out Concussion
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Back
Julian Blackmon S Questionable Shoulder
Jaylan Ford LB Questionable Ankle
Lorenzo Styles Jr. CB Questionable Calf
Barion Brown WR Questionable Thigh
Christen Miller DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
NO 13

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 FG MIN (9:08) 16-W.Reichard 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. MIN 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 08:26 TD NO (8:26) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIN (:03) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. MIN 6 – NO 7
  • Q3 12:13 TD MIN (12:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – NO 7
  • Q3 02:49 TD NO (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (22-M.Emerson; 20-P.Werner). FUMBLES (22-M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-7-J.Sanker at NO 13. 7-J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – NO 13
  • Q4 14:12 TD MIN (14:12) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – NO 13
  • Q4 07:06 FG MIN (7:06) 16-W.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. MIN 23 – NO 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (9:08) 16-W.Reichard 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:48) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 60%

    (13:01) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 86%

    (11:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 23 for 4 yards (23-J.Pierre).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:15) 19-B.Thorson punts 39 yards to NO 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:57) 17-R.Wright punts 64 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at NO 47 for 43 yards (31-J.Howden).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 35%

    (3:05) 19-B.Thorson punts 38 yards to NO 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:56) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 72%

    (:03) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 70%

    (7:06) 16-W.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (7-B.Murphy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:01) 19-B.Thorson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →