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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 16-W.Reichard 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model