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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 16-W.Reichard 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model