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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model