Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 6

(13:15) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 15 for 4 yards (25-D.Luter; 20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.64 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model