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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 14-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model