4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 39-T.Doman punts 44 yards to LV 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model