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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(14:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 35 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model