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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model