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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 39-T.Doman punts 51 yards to LV 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model