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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 8 yards (21-T.Homer). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TB 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP