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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 HC Mike McCarthy
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

PIT
41.5%
TB
58.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (PIT): -0.050 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: -0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TB on 3 more days rest than PIT

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21 14–28
–
TB 22 15–29
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

PIT

DeShon Elliott S Out Knee
Ben Skowronek WR Out Calf
Roman Wilson WR Out Finger
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Wrist
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Ankle
Rico Dowdle RB Questionable Toe
Pat Freiermuth TE Questionable Calf
Keeanu Benton DT Questionable Ankle

TB

Baker Mayfield QB Out Thumb
David Sills WR Out Hamstring
Antoine Winfield Jr. S Out Rib
Benjamin Morrison CB Doubtful Quadricep
Sean Tucker RB Questionable Quadricep
SirVocea Dennis LB Questionable Ankle
Ayden Garnes CB Questionable Ankle
Josiah Trotter LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 26
–
TB 19

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:55 FG TB (7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PIT 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 14:55 TD TB (14:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – TB 9
  • Q2 04:12 FG TB (4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PIT 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. PIT 3 – TB 13
  • Q3 05:05 FG TB (5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PIT 3 – TB 16
  • Q4 13:53 TD PIT (13:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – TB 16
  • Q4 08:11 FG PIT (8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. PIT 13 – TB 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. PIT 16 – TB 16
  • Q4 01:23 FG PIT (1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. PIT 19 – TB 16
  • Q4 00:13 FG TB (:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PIT 19 – TB 19
  • Q5 03:20 TD PIT (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 25 – TB 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 52%

    (11:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at TB 44 for 14 yards (29-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-40-D.Slaughter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 52%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 40 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby) [23-T.Smith].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:15) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 8 yards (21-T.Homer). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TB 13.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PIT 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 80%

    (7:15) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 27, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for -4 yards (19-K.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:18) 19-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:26) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 13 yards (51-N.Herbig).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PIT 32, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 19 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 40 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%

    (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 70%

    (:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →