4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model