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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 13 yards (51-N.Herbig).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model