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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model