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Best Bets — Week 18

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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NYJ @

BUF

Model: BUF 91.1% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

MIA @

Model: NE 81.9% · strong edge

NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

CLE @

CIN

Model: CIN 81.5% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

TEN @

HOU

Model: HOU 78.4% · strong edge

HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

LV @

Model: KC 75.3% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

LAC @

DEN

Model: DEN 72.7% · strong edge

LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

PIT @

BAL

Model: BAL 64.6% · clear edge

PIT offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)