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Best Bets — Week 12

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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TEN @

JAX

Model: JAX 82.3% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

KC @

BUF

Model: BUF 77.8% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

NYJ @

MIA

Model: MIA 72.9% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

NO @

CIN

Model: CIN 66.9% · clear edge

CIN offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

GB @

Model: LA 65.6% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

BAL @

HOU

Model: HOU 64.1% · clear edge

HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)