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Best Bets — Week 17

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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DEN @

Model: NE 72.2% · strong edge

NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

WAS @

JAX

Model: JAX 72.0% · strong edge

JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

BUF @

MIA

Model: BUF 71.0% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

LA @

Model: LA 66.9% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

MIN @

NYJ

Model: MIN 65.8% · clear edge

NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

HOU @

Model: GB 65.8% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)