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Best Bets — Week 10

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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BUF @

NYJ

Model: BUF 81.8% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

LA @

ARI

Model: LA 75.2% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

MIN @

Model: GB 71.4% · strong edge

MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

MIA @

IND

Model: IND 71.0% · strong edge

MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

LAC @

BAL

Model: BAL 68.9% · clear edge

LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

SEA @

Model: SEA 67.5% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

PIT @

CIN

Model: CIN 63.8% · clear edge

QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.142 vs Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.038 EPA/dropback

JAX @

TEN

Model: JAX 62.4% · clear edge

JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

HOU @

CLE

Model: HOU 62.1% · clear edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)