Value Picks — Week 12

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

KC @ BUF

Model: BUF 78.5% Line: BUF 57.3% 21.2-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ PIT Disagrees with the line

Model: PIT 58.8% Line: DEN 54.4% 13.2-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ DAL

Model: DAL 56.5% Line: DAL 54.4% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ DET

Model: DET 58.3% Line: DET 57.3% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ LA

Model: LA 65.0% Line: LA 65.8% 0.8-pt gap vs. the line