Value Picks — Week 4

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

LAC @ SEA

Model: SEA 78.1% Line: SEA 58.8% 19.3-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ LV

Model: KC 51.0% Line: KC 65.8% 14.8-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 50.5% Line: DET 58.8% 9.3-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ CHI

Model: CHI 82.5% Line: CHI 73.6% 8.9-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ WAS Disagrees with the line

Model: IND 54.2% Line: WAS 54.4% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ BUF

Model: BUF 66.8% Line: BUF 58.8% 8.0-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ MIN

Model: MIN 63.6% Line: MIN 71.1% 7.5-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ CLE

Model: PIT 50.3% Line: PIT 57.3% 7.0-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ BAL

Model: BAL 80.5% Line: BAL 73.6% 6.9-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ SF

Model: SF 62.9% Line: SF 57.3% 5.6-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ CIN

Model: CIN 52.4% Line: CIN 57.3% 4.9-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ NYG

Model: NYG 65.2% Line: NYG 69.8% 4.6-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ PHI

Model: LA 52.0% Line: LA 54.4% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ TB

Model: GB 56.5% Line: GB 54.4% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ HOU

Model: HOU 55.8% Line: HOU 57.3% 1.5-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ NO

Model: NO 57.2% Line: NO 57.3% 0.1-pt gap vs. the line