Value Picks — Week 8

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

BAL @ BUF

Model: BUF 76.7% Line: BUF 58.8% 17.9-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ DEN

Model: DEN 68.2% Line: DEN 54.4% 13.8-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ PIT

Model: PIT 73.8% Line: PIT 60.2% 13.6-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ GB

Model: GB 69.9% Line: GB 60.2% 9.7-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ WAS

Model: WAS 58.0% Line: WAS 67.2% 9.2-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ SEA

Model: SEA 67.8% Line: SEA 58.8% 9.0-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ DAL

Model: DAL 61.0% Line: DAL 69.8% 8.8-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ DET

Model: DET 66.6% Line: DET 58.8% 7.8-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ TB

Model: TB 50.5% Line: TB 57.3% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ LA

Model: LA 74.3% Line: LA 68.5% 5.8-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ NYJ

Model: NYJ 50.3% Line: NYJ 54.4% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ MIA

Model: NE 65.8% Line: NE 69.8% 4.0-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ CIN

Model: CIN 80.4% Line: CIN 84.1% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ JAX

Model: JAX 79.3% Line: JAX 77.1% 2.2-pt gap vs. the line