Value Picks — Week 5

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

PHI @ JAX Disagrees with the line

Model: JAX 70.1% Line: PHI 54.4% 24.5-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ NO Disagrees with the line

Model: NO 66.6% Line: MIN 54.4% 21.0-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 51.3% Line: CIN 67.2% 18.5-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ ARI

Model: DET 56.4% Line: DET 73.6% 17.2-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 53.0% Line: BAL 63.1% 16.1-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ NE

Model: NE 83.4% Line: NE 73.6% 9.8-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ SEA

Model: SEA 66.9% Line: SEA 60.2% 6.7-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ PIT

Model: PIT 63.6% Line: PIT 57.3% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ DAL

Model: DAL 66.3% Line: DAL 60.2% 6.1-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ GB

Model: GB 64.1% Line: GB 58.8% 5.3-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ LAC

Model: LAC 52.5% Line: LAC 57.3% 4.8-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ WAS

Model: WAS 51.6% Line: WAS 54.4% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ TEN

Model: HOU 58.3% Line: HOU 60.2% 1.9-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ NYJ

Model: NYJ 54.0% Line: NYJ 54.4% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ LA

Model: LA 58.5% Line: LA 58.8% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line