Value Picks — Week 6

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

CHI @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 55.9% Line: CHI 58.8% 14.7-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ KC

Model: KC 71.7% Line: KC 57.3% 14.4-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ NE

Model: NE 87.1% Line: NE 75.9% 11.2-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ IND

Model: IND 71.2% Line: IND 60.2% 11.0-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ DEN Disagrees with the line

Model: DEN 55.8% Line: SEA 54.4% 10.2-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ CLE

Model: BAL 60.0% Line: BAL 68.5% 8.5-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ JAX

Model: JAX 62.5% Line: JAX 54.4% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ LA

Model: LA 77.2% Line: LA 84.1% 6.9-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ TB

Model: TB 61.2% Line: TB 54.4% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ GB

Model: GB 60.8% Line: GB 58.8% 2.0-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ NYG

Model: NYG 58.8% Line: NYG 57.3% 1.5-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ LV

Model: BUF 69.5% Line: BUF 68.5% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ SF

Model: SF 66.7% Line: SF 65.8% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ PHI

Model: PHI 68.5% Line: PHI 68.5% 0.0-pt gap vs. the line