Value Picks — Week 7

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

CLE @ TEN Disagrees with the line

Model: TEN 66.8% Line: CLE 54.4% 21.2-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 59.3% Line: NYJ 60.2% 19.5-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ SEA

Model: SEA 77.1% Line: SEA 58.8% 18.3-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ PHI Disagrees with the line

Model: PHI 54.0% Line: DAL 63.1% 17.1-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 56.1% Line: SF 57.3% 13.4-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ NO Disagrees with the line

Model: NO 51.6% Line: PIT 58.8% 10.4-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ HOU

Model: HOU 67.1% Line: HOU 77.1% 10.0-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ LV

Model: LA 70.1% Line: LA 60.2% 9.9-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ BAL

Model: CIN 52.8% Line: CIN 58.8% 6.0-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ CHI

Model: CHI 52.9% Line: CHI 58.8% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ MIN

Model: MIN 62.9% Line: MIN 68.5% 5.6-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ DET

Model: DET 57.3% Line: DET 60.2% 2.9-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ ARI

Model: DEN 61.0% Line: DEN 63.1% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CAR

Model: CAR 60.5% Line: CAR 58.8% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line