Value Picks — Week 2

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

SEA @ ARI

Model: SEA 63.3% Line: SEA 77.1% 13.8-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ BUF

Model: BUF 71.9% Line: BUF 58.8% 13.1-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ NE

Model: NE 75.7% Line: NE 63.1% 12.6-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ NYJ

Model: GB 74.6% Line: GB 65.8% 8.8-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ SF

Model: SF 69.5% Line: SF 78.2% 8.7-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ ATL

Model: ATL 62.7% Line: ATL 54.4% 8.3-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ DEN

Model: DEN 51.4% Line: DEN 58.8% 7.4-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ TB

Model: TB 74.8% Line: TB 68.5% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ CHI

Model: CHI 65.9% Line: CHI 60.2% 5.7-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ BAL

Model: BAL 66.5% Line: BAL 71.1% 4.6-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ KC

Model: KC 64.4% Line: KC 68.5% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ LAC

Model: LAC 70.9% Line: LAC 73.6% 2.7-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ HOU

Model: HOU 59.9% Line: HOU 57.3% 2.6-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ TEN

Model: PHI 60.6% Line: PHI 63.1% 2.5-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ LA

Model: LA 74.5% Line: LA 73.6% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ DAL

Model: DAL 63.6% Line: DAL 63.1% 0.5-pt gap vs. the line